Prognostic risk score development to predict birth asphyxia using maternal and fetal characteristics in South Gondar zone hospitals, north West Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: Birth asphyxia leads to profound systemic and neurological sequela to decrease blood flow or oxygen to the fetus followed by lethal progressive or irreversible life-long pathologies. In low resource setting countries, birth asphyxia remains a critical condition. This study aimed to develop and validate prognostic risk scores to forecast birth asphyxia using maternal and neonatal characteristics in south Gondar zone hospitals. METHODS: Prospective cohorts of 404 pregnant women were included in the model in south Gondar Zone Hospitals, Northwest Ethiopia. To recognize potential prognostic determinants for birth asphyxia, multivariable logistic regression was applied. The model discrimination probability was checked using the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and the model calibration plot was assessed using the 'givitiR' R-package. To check the clinical importance of the model, a cost-benefit analysis was done through a decision curve and the model was internally validated using bootstrapping. Lastly, a risk score prediction measurement was established for simple application. RESULTS: Of 404, 108 (26.73%) (95% CI: 22.6-31.3) newborns were exposed to birth asphyxia during the follow-up time. Premature rupture of membrane, meconium aspiration syndrome, malpresentation, prolonged labor, Preterm, and tight nuchal was the significant prognostic predictors of birth asphyxia. The AUROC curve for birth asphyxia was 88.6% (95% CI: 84.6-92.2%), which indicated that the tool identified the newborns at risk for birth asphyxia very well. The AUROC of the simplified risk score algorithm, was 87.9 (95% CI, 84.0- 91.7%) and the risk score value of 2 was selected as the optimal cut-off value, with a sensitivity of 78.87%, a specificity of 83.26%, a positive predictive value of 63.23%, and a negative predictive value of 91.52%. CONCLUSIONS: We established birth asphyxia prediction tools by applying non-sophisticated maternal and neonatal characteristics for resource scares countries. The driven score has very good discriminative ability and prediction performance. This risk score tool would allow reducing neonatal morbidity and mortality related to birth asphyxia. Consequently, it will improve the overall neonatal health / under-five child health in low-income countries.

Determinants of contraceptive decision making among married women in Sub-Saharan Africa from the recent Demographic and Health Survey data.

BACKGROUND: Different evidence suggested that couples often disagree about the desirability of pregnancy and the use of contraceptives. Increased women's decision-making on contraceptives is identified as a key solution that can change the prevailing fertility and contraceptive utilization pattern in SSA. Therefore, this study aimed to determine determinants of contraceptive decision-making among married women in Sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: The data source of this study was the standard demographic and health survey datasets of 33 Sub-Saharan Africa countries. Reproductive age group women aged (15-49 years) currently married who are not pregnant and are current users of contraceptive preceding three years the survey was included from the individual record (IR file) file between 2010 and 2018. Since the outcome variable is composed of polychotomous categorical having multiple-choice, the Multinomial logistic regression (MNLR) model was applied. RESULTS: A total of 76,516 married women were included in this study. Maternal age 20-35 and 36-49 years were more likely to had decision making on contraceptive use in both women-only and joint (women and husband/partner category (referance = husband/partner) (RRR = 1.2; 95% CI = 1.05-1.41, RRR = 1.18; 1.04-1.33 and RRR = 1.38; 95% CI = 1.17-1.61, RRR = 1.27; 1.11-1.47)] respectively. Married women with higher education were more likely to decide by women-only category on contraceptive use (referance = husband/partner) (RRR = 1.26; 95% CI = 1.06-1.49). Women only decision-making to use contraceptives relative to the husband/partner only decreases by a factor of 0.86 (95% CI = 0.80-0.93) among rural than urban residences. Women only or joint decision making to use contraceptives was 1.25 and 1.35 times more likely relative to husband/partner decision making respectively among women who had work than that of had no work. The relative risk of women's decision to use family planning relative to husband increased among couples who had a marital duration of ≥ 10 years (RRR = 1.14; 95% CI = 1.06-1.22). But it has no significant effect on joint decision making. Respondents found in the richest wealth index category increase the relative risk of joint decision-making relative to husband/partner (RRR = 1.33; 95% CI = 1.20-1.47) compared to the poorest category. CONCLUSIONS: Decision-making to use contraceptives among married women varies greatly by socio-demographic characteristics. The finding of this study showed that women's age, women educational status, residence, duration of the marriage, family economy, and country income were significantly associated with contraceptive decision-making. Therefore to promote ideal family planning decision making, there is a need to formulate policies and design programs that target women's socio-demographic characteristics and modern contraceptive interventions should be promoted by considering empowering women on decision making.

The pooled estimate of the total fertility rate in sub-Saharan Africa using recent (2010-2018) Demographic and Health Survey data.

Background: Even though the total fertility rate (TFR) has decreased significantly over the past decades in many countries, it has remained stable in sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. However, there is variation among the sub-regions and inhabitants of SSA. Therefore, this study aimed to conduct a meta-analysis of demographic and health surveys (DHS) to estimate the pooled level of TFR in SSA and to depict sub-regional and inhabitant differences. Methods: The data source for this study was the standard Demographic and Health Survey datasets of 33 sub-Saharan African countries, accessed through www.meaasuredhs.com between 2010 and 2018. The point estimate of the total fertility rate with its corresponding standard error in each sub-Saharan African country was estimated using the DHS.rates R package. Using the point estimate of the TFR with the standard error of each country, the pooled estimate of the TFR was generated by the metan STATA command. Results: The study comprised 1,324,466 live births in total. The pooled estimate of sub-Saharan Africa's overall fertility rate was five children per woman (95% CI: 4.63-5.37). Consequently, the pooled estimate of total fertility for people living in urban and rural areas was 3.90 (95% CI: 3.60-4.21) and 5.82 (95% CI: 5.43-6.21) children per woman, respectively. In sub-group analysis, the pooled estimates of the TFR for the East African, Central African, Southern African, and West African regions, respectively, were 4.74, 5.59, 3.18, and 5.38 children per woman. Total fertility rates were greater in low-income nations (5.45), lower-middle-income countries (4.70), and high-middle-income countries (3.80). Conclusions: SSA has a relatively high total fertility rate. The regions of West and Central Africa have the highest overall fertility rate. The fertility rate is higher in countries with a large rural population and low income. Strategies should be developed to address this public health concern, especially in rural Central and Western Africa.

Time to death and its determinants among under-five children in Sub-Saharan Africa using the recent (2010-2018) demographic and health survey data: country-based shared frailty analyses.

BACKGROUND: Substantial global progress has been made in reducing under-five mortality since 1990, yet progress is insufficient to meet the sustainable development goal of 2030 which calls for ending preventable child deaths. There are disproportional survivals among children in the world. Therefore, the study aimed to assess the Survival status of under-five mortality and determinants in Sub-Saharan African Countries using the recent DHS data. METHODS: The data was retrieved from the birth record file from the standard Demographic and Health Survey dataset of Sub-Saharan Africa countries. Countries that have at least one survey between 2010 and 2018 were retrieved. Parametric shared frailty survival analysis was employed. RESULTS: A total of 27,221 (7.35%) children were died before celebrating their fifth birthday. Children at an early age were at higher risk of dying and then decrease proportionally with increased age. The risk of death among rich and middle family were lowered by 18 and 8% (AHR =0.82, 95% CI: 0.77-0.87) and (AHR = 0.92, 95% CI: 0.87-0.97) respectively, the hazard of death were 11, 19, 17, 90 and 55% (AHR = 1.06, 95% CI: 1.00-1.12), (AHR = 1.11,95%CI:1.04-1.19), (AHR = 1.17, 95% CI:1.12-1.23), (AHR = 1.90, 95%CI: 1.78-2.04) and (AHR = 1.55, 95% CI:1.47-1.63) higher than among children in rural, use unimproved water, delivered at home, born less than 18 months and between 18 and 23 months birth intervals respectively. The hazard of death was 7% among females and low birth weights (AHR = 0.93, 95%CI: 0.90 - 0.97) and (AHR = 0.93 95%CI: 0.89-0.97) respectively. There was also a significant association between multiple births and birth orders (AHR = 2.11, 95%CI: 2.51 - 2.90), (AHR = 3.01, 95%CI: 2.85-3.19) respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Death rate among under-five children was higher at an early age then decreases as age advanced. Wealth status, residence, water source, place of delivery, sex of the child, plurality, birth size, preceding birth interval, and birth order were the most predictor variables. The health care program should be designed to encourage a healthy family structure. The health care providers should intervene in the community to inspire maternal health services.